The “LOYS” foundation has analyzed data published by the RA Statistical Committee to predict socio-economic developments in Armenia from January to February 2024.

According to the analysis, there has been a significant acceleration in economic activity in the agricultural sector in February 2024. However, this growth is short-term and relies heavily on unpredictable external operations, particularly due to the decline in gold mining activity.

The construction sector continues to experience high growth rates, leading to an increase in housing prices that make it difficult for people to afford proper living conditions. The registration of manufacturing enterprises in sectors such as food, tobacco, textile, and chemicals has also increased in January 2024. However, it is expected that growth rates in the construction sector will decrease, negatively impacting the industry as a whole.

Tax revenues have doubled due to the significant increase in gold mining activity. However, this increase is solely based on imports, which does not contribute to the domestic economy. Additionally, the environmental problems associated with this industry raise concerns.

Mandatory expenditures have grown faster than expected, reaching a growth rate of 7.9% in January-February 2024. This exceeds the growth rate of tax returns, indicating that expenditures exceed income by more than 30%. The increase in state budget expenditures, particularly related to public administration costs and social security obligations, contribute to this imbalance.

In conclusion, it is recommended that the government takes active measures to regulate gold mining activities for effective control of commercial growth. Increasing tax revenues should also be considered to compensate for the rise in mandatory expenditures.

The complete interpretation of the forecast can be found on the following link: News from Armenia.