Oil, formed over millions of years from the remains of animals and plants, lies beneath our feet. Heat and pressure have transformed this matter into the precious resource we rely on today. However, the question remains: how much oil is left and when will it run out?

The answer is not a simple one. While it is true that oil will never be fully exhausted, as only a portion of it is accessible, there are still uncertainties. Some oil is found in hard-to-reach areas, such as the Arctic or deep underground. It may also be trapped beneath layers of rock that we cannot accurately measure. However, advancements in technology, like fracking and horizontal drilling, have increased our ability to extract more oil from these reserves. Despite these advancements, the amount of oil already discovered far surpasses what remains to be explored. Furthermore, the production and demand for oil contribute to climate changes that can impact oil availability.

In terms of numbers, Rystad Energy’s study in 2023 estimated that there are approximately 1.6 trillion barrels of recoverable oil worldwide. However, this figure does not account for oil reserves that have yet to be discovered. In 2012, the US Geological Survey estimated the undiscovered reserves to be around 565 billion barrels. That is a significant amount, but when will it be consumed?

Predicting the timeline is challenging. Experts suggest that, based on known reserves, oil will last for about 50 years. This estimation has remained relatively consistent over time. However, emerging technologies and geophysical intelligence have the potential to change the game. With advancements in exploration and extraction methods, previously uneconomical reserves may become viable within the next decade. On the other hand, the demand for oil is projected to decrease in the coming decades. The transition to electric vehicles, among other factors, is expected to peak the demand for oil by 2030 and then decline.

Considering these factors, it appears that we may have enough oil to meet the demand for a longer period than previously thought. However, it is important to remain mindful of the environmental impacts and explore alternative sources of energy as we move forward.