The “Lus” Foundation has analyzed the social-economic developments of the Republic of Armenia based on data published by the RA Statistical Committee. Their prediction for the months of January-April 2024 reveals a slowdown in socio-economic growth in the country.

Compared to the previous month, April experienced a decline of 10.4% in GDP growth, as opposed to the 4.9% growth observed earlier. The overall GDP growth for January-April also decreased by 13.2%. Despite these declines, economic activities are still expected to continue in the short term, as changes in macroeconomic indicators are anticipated.

Furthermore, the growth of services also saw a decline, with only a 0.8% increase in April. While it is possible to analyze the reasons behind this decline using the published information about the sector, it already indicates a lack of development in the jewelry industry and a decrease in socio-economic activities.

The growth of taxable income has also decreased, with a 9.3% increase in January-April 2024. Additionally, the return of income tax on hypothecated loans decreased by 6.1%, falling lower than what was expected from the Republic of Armenia. This suggests that the management is not adequately taxing economic activities that contribute to GDP growth.

In the long term, the volume of consumer loans has significantly increased. From January to April 2024, commercial banks in the Republic of Armenia provided consumer loans (both consumer and hypothecated loans) that saw a 19.7% growth. This growth exceeds that of other important macroeconomic indicators like GDP, average monthly salaries, and remittances from abroad. This indicates that the increase in consumer borrowing is outpacing the growth of indicators that affect service provision capabilities.

To read the full analysis, you can visit the following link:

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