The tension between Armenia and Russia over the entrance to Armenia’s territory continues to rise. While the withdrawal of Russian military presence or the conflict over the military cooperation between the two countries is not viewed as an immediate problem, the long-term consequences of the Russian base in Armenia can potentially affect the relations between the Armenian and Russian authorities.

According to a source from the US intelligence company Stratfor (RANE), American and Russian analysts believe that the current situation regarding the military cooperation between Armenia and Russia will only lead to small-scale changes, unless the situation drastically changes in the next 2-3 years, which might include potential conflict with Azerbaijan.

At the same time, it is not believed that the US has any particular reasons to start actively supporting Armenia. This situation is of concern to Turkey and Azerbaijan, and we are forced to assure them that it will not further deteriorate their relations, as Turkey is a member of NATO, while the US has had longstanding relations with Azerbaijan, according to the analyst.

This development has also raised concerns about the commitments and obligations of Armenia towards Russia and the need to align them with the commitments of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. There is also concern that Russia might increase its military spending in order to strengthen its influence in Ukraine. In light of these developments, the Southern Caucasus region, especially the South Caucasus, becomes even more important.

The analyst believes that the current plans of the Armenian government (the “New Paths for Development” initiative) are very important and should be further advanced, particularly in terms of the entrance to Armenia.

“The leadership of Armenia needs to pay close attention to this. The potential for cooperation is significant, but Armenia has good chances,” emphasized the analyst.

News from Armenia – NEWS.am