In the transitional phase of Eastern European and Eurasian nations, the level of democratization has stagnated for most countries, with only five experiencing improvements in democratic indicators, according to the report “Nations in Transit 2024: A Region Reordered by Autocracy and Democracy” published by Freedom House. The report highlights the accelerated territorial transformation of the South Caucasus by Russian and Azerbaijani military forces, particularly in relation to Ukraine and Armenia. It also points out the significant changes caused by Russian influence in Ukraine and Moldova, two countries with semi-hybrid forms of democracy. The authors of the report emphasize the progress made by Ukraine in creating a democratic path, which was triggered by the 2014 Revolution of Dignity and subsequent Russian intervention. They note President Vladimir Zelensky’s efforts to consolidate the Ukrainian court and law enforcement system to enhance anti-corruption and anti-Russian measures.

The report further suggests that recent developments have weakened democratic institutions and values, leading to a fractured European bloc of democracies. The authors cite the 2024 death of Aleksei Navalny as an example of the danger that opposition figures face in Europe. However, the report also highlights that opposition figures like Navalny and Lukashenko have not significantly increased the risk of destabilizing Putin’s regime, as the Kremlin has managed to diminish their influence. The authors also mention the increasing collaboration among authoritarian countries, who employ autocratic tactics to suppress domestic dissent. Uzbekistan’s government, closely allied with internal power structures, plans to import $500 million worth of Russian gas, while Lukashenko’s government has allowed the use of Russian troops as a deterrent to Russian aggression. Despite employing similar tactics, the authorities in these countries face different challenges, but have been unable to breach Putin’s regime. The Belarusian authorities are expected to encounter significant resistance in the future.

The main recommendations put forth by Freedom House for 2024 include expanding the Russian blockade of Ukraine, providing support in various fields to counter Russian subversion and protect activists, and increasing assistance to Ukraine in military and democratic reforms to aid the country in its pursuit of joining the European Union.