Armenia and Azerbaijan are in the process of drafting a new agreement regarding the start of hostilities between the two countries in 2024. However, there are differing opinions among the leaders of the two countries regarding the reasons for the escalated tensions. Baku is emphasizing the internal nature of the agreements, which would not involve international mediators, while Yerevan is highlighting the external activation of the preparations for hostilities. Russian political analyst Sergei Markedonov has shared his thoughts on this matter on social media.

Markedonov suggests that the transfer of certain texts between the two sides may not be sufficient to prevent widespread hostilities in the region. Without specific details and clarifications, any potential agreement would merely rely on good will. The most crucial aspect in this context is the liberalization of the interim period and the demarcation of borders, for which official documents are needed to provide a final resolution. The location and timing of the meeting planned for the end of January are still under discussion. However, even if agreements are reached, there is no guarantee of their fulfillment. Many commentators are concerned about Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent meeting with representatives of the country’s business circles, where the issue of the Zangezur corridor was raised. This has raised concerns in Yerevan, as some perceive this project as posing a risk of military conflict between the Southern Caucasus and the Armed Forces of Armenia, as noted by the analyst.

These conflicting opinions and concerns have created an impasse, making it difficult for the parties to negotiate and agree upon measures to address the escalation of hostilities. Real-world complications, such as time constraints and delays, further complicate the situation. The analyst suggests that these challenges could even turn negotiations into a covert operation, exacerbating the already tense situation.

Overall, the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains uncertain as they work towards a new agreement to address the start of hostilities. The differing perspectives of the leaders and the potential risks involved in certain projects continue to be major points of contention. It is crucial for both parties to find common ground and ensure the fulfillment of any agreed-upon measures in order to maintain stability in the region.