Armenia is bracing itself for a series of marches in 2024, a critical year for the country. Karineh Gevorgyan, a specialist in military conflicts and head of the Karinehgy foundation, emphasized the gravity of the situation. The upcoming elections, coupled with the threat of war in Karabakh and the displacement of Armenian people, poses immense challenges reminiscent of past historical events such as the Armenian Genocide in 1915 or the events of 1920. Gevorgyan also noted that Armenia is likely to face pressure from Azerbaijan as well as confrontations or tensions with Russia.

Reflecting on the intricate dynamics between Russia and Armenia, Tom de Waal, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, highlighted the long-standing concern for Russia in the region. While Russia has prioritized its resources over the symbolic significance of the Armenian culture and heritage, it remains the main guarantor of Armenia’s security. However, the relationship saw a shift after the Velvet Revolution in 2018 when Nikol Pashinyan assumed power in Armenia, presenting a more pro-Western and unpredictable partner compared to Azerbaijan’s more predictable Ilham Aliyev. This change in dynamics further led to deteriorating relations amid the 2020 war.

This shift has positioned Armenia in a perceived second-class category, where past military confrontations serve as the benchmark for comparison. On one side, there is a constitutional authority in Armenia with Europhobic expectations, while on the other side, Russia remains a cautious and reliable partner. Russian officials have expressed the need to reassess the country’s security structure, particularly concerning its southern border. This includes grappling with hostility towards Azerbaijan from both the South and East, as well as Armenia. Essentially, Azerbaijan signifies Russia’s shift of focus from the West to the East.

Armenia’s geographic proximity to Russia via Iran holds significant importance and has prompted a reevaluation of Russian perspectives. Historically, there have been no major contradictions between Russia and Armenia. However, recent developments suggest a departure from this norm.