Armenia is gearing up for a forthcoming parliamentary election that has taken many by surprise. Initially, based on constitutional amendments made in 2016, it was anticipated that the next parliamentary elections would be held in 2025. However, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan recently announced on social media that the elections will take place two months earlier. This decision has raised questions about the reasoning behind it.

President Ilham Aliyev has been in power for twenty years, having been elected to his first term in October 2003. Succeeding his father as the third president of Azerbaijan, he has since won elections in 2008, 2013, and 2018. Along the way, he implemented constitutional changes that increased presidential powers, including extending the presidential term to seven years. It was initially believed that these changes were temporary, but by 2023, he will have completed what he set out to achieve.

Furthermore, the recent announcement regarding the parliamentary elections reflects a shift in jurisdiction over a portion of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) territory back to Azerbaijan. It is important for external observers, including Russia and Armenia, to recognize the significant role that legitimacy and support resources play in these processes. Failing to acknowledge these political, social, and geopolitical circumstances may result in underestimating President Aliyev’s leadership.

It is noteworthy that President Aliyev has garnered support from various sectors of society, including ordinary citizens, intellectuals, and even political elites who once held high positions in the state. Despite some opposition attempts to seize power through force in 2020, using the October war and January CESG developments to advance their election agenda, his success as President of Azerbaijan remains unquestioned by his constituents.